Here are reasons why your Sweet 16 team will win the Tournament. Yeah, I guess it's possible that "your" team did not make the Sweet 16 given that my team didn't even make the Tournament. So what to do? I strongly suggest you read every word below and then pick a team. Or don't pick a team. But definitely read every word below.
Sincerely,
Dave Barend - Grand Poobah
College Basketball Times
PS - It is possible that your team has made the Sweet 16 and you don't find it below. We're working on that. And hopefully we'll have that fixed before June.
Alabama - Men
New Reasons
Mark Sears has the fastest first step in all of college basketball, a fantastic outside shooter, a great passer, and an 85 percent free throw shooter. Offensively, Mark Sears is a question to which there are no right answers.
There were some questions about whether Alabama could compete with teams with talented big men. Clifford Omoyuri answered those questions scoring a collective 27 points in the first two games (13 dunks and one free throw).
Rapper Will.I.am said it best in the Black Eyed-Peas song “My Humps” when he exclaimed “defense wins championships”. Instead of ending up the kids with their heads in their hands sobbing during the “One Shining Moment” video, when Robert Morris pushing towards a potentially legendary upset, they stepped up and shut them down.
Grant Nelson can do everything (except properly grow a mustache) and he’s healthy. His Willis Reed style entrance against Robert Morris revived a struggling Alabama team at a critical moment.
They played the toughest schedule in the country in order to prepare for these next four games. They are ready.
Original Reasons
The amount of offensive talent on the roster is almost embarrassing. Sears, Nelson, Holloway and Philon all average double digits. Beyond that, there is a seemingly endless pool of folks who can come in off the bench and light up the scoreboard in every imaginable way. They average 91 points per game, 5 more than anyone in the country.
They were extremely successful in a historically outstanding conference. This year’s SEC has drawn comparisons to some of the greatest conferences ever. They are frequently mentioned amongst the likes of the 1985 Big East Conference which sent 3 teams to the Final Four. As of today, Joe Lunardi has 13 of the 16 teams in the conference making the NCAA tournament.
I believe it was William “The Refrigerator” Perry who once quipped “defense wins championships”. They play at the fastest pace of any team in the nation, which means they are going to give up a ton of points. But, as they showed in their road win over the #1 ranked Auburn Tigers last week, when they need to get a stop, they get one. They played the third highest scoring team in the nation last night and held Kentucky to 70, 16 below their average.
They thrived against the toughest schedule in the country. This year’s “Denny Crum Award for Masochistic Scheduling” goes to the Crimson Tide. Hands down. Not only did they play in the best conference in the country, they went out of conference and played Houston, Purdue, Illinois, Oregon, North Carolina and Creighton. Nearly every game they played this season was against a team that will be in the NCAA Tournament next week.
Mark Sears. Give me a choice of any player in the country who I want to have the ball in a crucial moment and I’m taking Sears. The kid has a flair for coming up huge in big moments and his game winning floater at the buzzer in overtime at Auburn last week was undoubtedly the play of the year so far.
Keith Spillett
Arizona - Men
New Reasons
1. Never underestimate spite. I said the Wildcats have a history of breaking my bracket, and I picked them losing to Oregon in the second round.
2. Coach Tommy Lloyd has yet to prove he can get past the Sweet 16, and if Arizona beats Duke they can beat anyone
3. After averaging only 31% for the season, the 'cats are heating up from 3-point range, hitting nearly 50% of their attempts in the tournament.
Original Reasons
1. Balance: The Wildcats averaged 82.2 points per game, as well as 39.8 rebounds and 16.7 assists - while also averaging about 8 steals and 4 blocks per game
2. Marquee talent like shooting guard Caleb Love is often a difference-maker, but timely contributions from up-and-coming players like KJ Lewis and Henri Veesaar are nice, too!
3. My bracket PTSD reminds me that Arizona underachieves when favored and overachieves when underestimated. A late-season slide does not bode well for those picking an early exit for the Kitties.
4. To spite all the Arizona State fans, who are still waiting for Bobby Hurley to get them to the tournament.
Matt Carty
Arkansas - Men
New Reasons
1. They are big. They are physical. They block shots. Just ask St John's.
2. Boogie Fland appeared to be back in the groove in the second round.
3. Johnell Davis is the greatest undershirt icon in college basketball since Patrick Ewing.
4. The networks can't get enough of the Calipari family.
5. Calipari has four more checkerboard/houndstooth blazers in his closet.
Original Reasons
1. Boogie Fland is back and he is going to be taking names.
2. D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis are about to be used like a set of brass knuckles in Providence. Insert joke about Buddy Cianci's mansion in the 1970s.
3. John Calipari's team doesn't have to face "Big Country" Bryant Reeves this year.
4. They get to play St. John's in the second round. The Johnnies have already been feted like a team that has won a national title. They are ripe for a rude awakening.
5. The University of Arkansas' president is named Donald R. Bobbit. Insert all of 1993's best jokes.
Clayton Trutor
Auburn - Men
New Reasons
• Bruce Pearl has won everyplace he has gone and has yet another chance to shed the title of "Best Coach without a National Title," that he shares with Mark Few, Kelvin Sampson and Rick Barnes.
• Some coaches leave their jobs for higher-profile roles with other programs when the season ends, but Pearl pressers seem like he's auditioning for U.S. State Department role crafting future policy as it pertains to Gaza.
• Statistically, Tigers are the best at nothing, but incredibly good at just about everything -- third in adjusted offense nationally, 12in in defense.
• Losers of three of four entering the tourney, got back on track with wins over Alabama State and Creighton, has momentum back in right direction.
• Every Auburn player is 114 or better in offensive efficiency. Pearl has crafted a machine and is ready to win big.
Original Reasons
1With Cooper Flagg gimpy, Johni Broome is the best (presumably) healthy player in the nation and is having his best season as a college player in his fifth year, averaging a double-double and is also shot blocking machine. Not the best player in Auburn history -- see Barkley, Charles -- but sure as hell looks like it a lot of nights.
2.Still pissed about losing to Virginia in the 2019 Final Four on a controversial call, plays with a chip on their shoulder and grinder mentality.
3Team was incentivized to earn overall No. 1 seed and play very close to home. Short flights are good for team that forced an airplane grounded after getting in an in-flight fight on its way to beat Houston early in the season.
4.Still pissed about losing in first round last year against Yale -- of all freaking teams -- in a game where Chad Baker-Mazara was ejected on a controversial call. Also got ejected in the home loss to Alabama this year. The Dominican is a difference maker and the lessons are learned ... he'll be dialed in.
5Broome or Baker-Mazara could be the best defensive player on most teams, but Denver Jones has that honor for the Tigers. When Davion Mitchell was at Baylor, his nickname was "Off-Night," because every player he defended had one. That's Jones, a semifinalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year.
6.Everybody should root for the Tigers as, if Bruce Pearl is on the sideline, he can’t be on Twitter.
7.Bruce Pearl among the finalists to portray Frank Costanza in any potential “Seinfeld” rebo
Shawn O'Neal
BYU - Men
New Reasons
Richie Saunders is the Tater Tot King. For those confused, his great-grandfather invented tater tots. Since this incredible revelation was discovered last week, BYU fans and the team have started chanting, “Tater Tot” at him. Additionally, he has inked an NIL deal with Ore-Ida Potatoes that will give free tater tots to everyone nationwide for the first thirty minutes after the national championship, provided they win. If I were an NCAA official, I would do everything in my power to guarantee BYU’s championship run simply for the free tots.
They dropped 91 on Wisconsin’s head. This team can score with the best of them. In fact, they can outscore the best of them.
Ok sure, they gave up 89 to Wisconsin, but did you see the defense on the final possession? When they needed a stop, they turned into the ‘04 Pistons on defense.
Heir Richie (another one of Saunders’ nicknames) scored 16 against VCU and 25 against Wisconsin. He is electric.
A camera meant for filming post-game celebrations accidentally captured Dawson Blake, who was wrongfully ejected with 3:11 left, losing his mind rooting for his team down the stretch. It was killing him for him not to be in. That bottled-up passion will make for a stunning Sweet 16 performance; book it.
Original Reasons
The Cougars are hot! I don’t mean that in a Stacy’s Mom or Zach Wilson way. I mean that to say they closed the season on an eight-game win streak, with five of those against Quad 1 teams. They continued the run in the Big 12 Tournament, defeating Iowa State for the second time this season. They did lose badly to Houston in the semifinals, but that was purely a matchup issue.
Sophomore Townsend Tripple not only has an all-time basketball last name but also has the best eyebrow and mustache combination in the entirety of college basketball. He may not play often, but he is sure to distract opposing players. Can you imagine trying to blow by a guy and out of the corner of your eye you see a perfect cross between Eugene Levy and Ted Lasso?
They’re so deep. They average 30.76 points off the bench which is among the top of the NCAA. Rolling out 10-11 players is a huge advantage as the tournament goes on.
At the end of the regular season, they were leading the nation in effective FG percentage and were the 4th rated offense overall. If they can keep scoring at this clip in the tournament, they will be popping champagne when it ends, non-alcoholic champagne of course.
Whit Henry
Duke - Men
New Reasons
1. COOPER FLAGG
2. Duke's defense and depth
3. The media (including CBS) - which favors elite liberal universities like Duke - has already determined that Duke will win the tournament.
4. Duke gets all the calls.
5. Just like the Dallas Cowboys, Duke is America's team. Unlike the Cowboys, Duke is actually good and can win in the post-season.
Original Reasons
1. Cooper Flagg not really injured. Just part of a deep state conspiracy. FAKE NEWS!!!
2. Kon Knueppel and the rest of the Duke team.
3. The Slim Reaper, Isaiah Evans, channels his inner Steph Curry and averages 8 made 3 pointers per game.
4. DOGE announces that the federal government is immediately cutting all funding to the NCAA as well as any state that hosts an NCAA tournament game, creating mass confusion and delaying the tournament for a month until the administration abruptly changes course and seizes upon an opportunity to MAKE THE TOURNAMANENT GREAT AGAIN – MTTGA – to divert attention from the stock market’s continued precipitous decline. Flagg’s ankle full healed by time tourney starts and averages a double-double.
5. Duke engineering students unveil a time machine and, much like Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, bring back a 22 year old Christian Laettner from 1992, who is granted another year of eligibility by the NCAA. Duke beats both Kentucky and UConn en route to another Championship.
6. Cooper Flagg, on a bum ankle, still manages to be Cooper Flagg and wills Duke to a national championship.
Robb Hellwig
Duke - Women
New Reasons
1. Great team defense
2. Toby Fournier gets healthy and back in lineup
3. Incredible efficiency – Duke Women’s wins per NIL dollar is 1000x that of the Duke
Original Reasons
1. Duke gets all the calls.
2. Kara Lawson and destiny – 6 wins in tourney gets Lawson to 100 career wins.
3. Duke women are tough. Trust me. I dated a few. Albeit 35 years ago.
4. Momentum – Duke continues to roll after winning ACC Tournament
5. Depth – Duke has a deep, balanced attack
Robb Hellwig
Florida - Men
New Reasons
Walter Clayton is the best college player when he's on. He can make a three from anywhere. Drive to the paint. Create contact—Swish free throws. And most importantly, he's got that dawg in him.
Florida's size in the front court has continued to prove its dominance in the paint, and it can rebound against other prominent big men.
Despite the close win to UConn, two-seed St. John's has been eliminated from the West bracket, the opponent most likely to take Florida out. The next matchup is Maryland, which has no bench compared to the Gator's deep roster. And when the Gators win that one, they'll play either Arkansas, who they already beat, or Texas Tech, who are prone to foul trouble in the paint, which Thomas Hauk and Alex Condon will take advantage of happily.
This year's the last chance the elite guards get to win a championship. The continued senior/grad trio of Walter Clatyon Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin will continue to guide the way as they have all year with their experience. Alijah Martin's further experience in his Final Four runs with FAU will also show up big.
There's a different type of energy with this team. From the grittiness to the depth, Coach Todd Golden got hyped with his whole team present during the post-game interview. This team is confident and ready to take the chip home here and now.
Original Reasons
Rebounds come easy for the Gators. The tall trio of Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Reuben Chinyelu rack in at least 6 rebounds per game. They rank third in the country with 42.1 rebounds per game. The entire roster crashes the boards like no one's business.
The SEC had the historically best season, entering 14 teams into March Madness. The Gators won the conference tournament and beat every team they played by at least 9 points. You can't tell me that's not national champion material.
The Florida Gators can do what the Phoenix Suns wish they could. Have a dominant trio of players be able to carry them to a championship. But wait, Florida's role players are actually good.
Florida has the country's top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency; it is a well-rounded team that is not just carried by a fast-paced offense like last year. The backcourt will steal the ball and make quick threes, and the frontcourt will steal offensive rebounds and block you in the paint.
The Gator's margin of victory this year was 16.2, while at home, it was 23.5. The Gators are also defeating the best teams in the country by a significant amount. They beat Auburn on the road by 9. Alabama by 22. Tennessee by 30. You get the idea.
Tyler Brodie
Houston - Men
New Reasons
• The Cougars' rise in the American helped earn their jump to the Big 12, where there was no thought they could continue on the same path, but have punked the Big 12 in consecutive years by a combined six games.
• Houston enters the Sweet 16 having won a national best 15 consecutive games, its last loss coming on February 1, a single-point OT setback to another Sweet 16 teams, Texas Tech.
• Three of Houston's four losses this year are in OT, the only regulation setback coming to Auburn in the infamous "Fight or Flight" game, where the Tigers chose both and pulled out a 74-69 win.
• Houston's resume reads like five teams' strengths condensed into one: Best in the nation in defensive efficiency and 3-point shooting, best in the Big 12in blocked shots on defense and offense, offensive rebound percentage and steal percentage on offense. Good luck.
• One of Kelvin Sampson's first coaching jobs was Washington State, where he had a role player by the name of LaVar Ball, who had a couple of sons who became NBA players. Sampson's assessment of Ball's abilities according to the Lewiston (Idaho) Tribune: “We could lock LaVar in a barn for two hours and I don’t think he’d score 20 points. His role is not to score points.”
Original Reasons
• Underrated part of coaching is getting college-aged men to show up and perform consistently night after night. Nobody does that better than Kelvin Sampson. Dude's been in the Big 12 two years, been Coach of the Year in both.
• Back as high seed after missing chance last year when Jamal Shead was lost to injury in tight Sweet 16 loss to Duke. Dominated the Big 12 again. Won by two games last year, four this year. With all eyes on the SEC and Duke, feels like the Coogs are getting slept on.
• Second best defense in the nation according to KenPom and only four teams play a slower pace. A date with Houston is as enjoyable as getting your wisdom teeth removed.
• Last year's Coogs were the second best defensive team in America behind Iowa State, per KenPom. This year's is No. 2 behind St. Johns ... but this year's team is potent from 3-point range, fourth nationally with three high-volume shooters (LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp) hitting at better than 40%.
• No coach is as hungry for a title as Sampson, with his 21st NCAA Tournament team. His first was in 1994 when another group of Cougars -- Washington State -- clinched a berth with a win in the regular-season finale over Cal. The Golden Bears point guard? Dallas Mavericks coach Jason Kidd.
Shawn O'Neal
Kentucky - Men
New Reasons
They’ve already beat Tennessee twice. This is the ideal matchup for a Sweet Sixteen. Wildcat fans must be salivating looking at this game.
They grabbed eight fewer rebounds than Illinois and still won by nine.
They could meet the Arkansas Razorbacks led by Coach Cal for a rematch in the championship. It’s a reunion and a showdown. Old friends turned into new foes. Hollywood hasn’t written this good of a script since La La Land.
THEY HAD 14 STEALS?? For a second I thought I was watching a penitentiary league game with the amount of robbery going on.
Original Reasons
There is an asteroid-sized chip on their shoulder. This team has wins over Duke, Florida, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Missouri, and two wins over Tennessee. Sure, it has a bad loss or two, but this is March. All regular-season mistakes are forgiven. All that matters is that you can beat the best. Clearly, they can.
Their hypothetical route to the Elite 8 is Troy, UCLA, and Tennessee, which they’ve knocked off twice already. They would then play Houston, which does not have the size to guard Kentucky. Then Duke, which they’ve beat already, and Florida, which they’ve beat already. These are hypotheticals, but it looks pretty good for the Wildcats.
Senior Amari Williams is from Nottingham, England. This feud is nationalistic for him, he’s playing for the UK after all.
Whit Henry
Maryland - Men
New Reasons - 3/24/2025
1. By all accounts, Maryland should not have beaten Colorado State, however the mascot gods smiled upon their cool looking terrapin, which is probably why they got away with that arguable traveling call on the buzzer beater.
2. Maryland obliterated Grand Canyon in the first round, and survived a nail biter against CSU, so they've won big and also had to battle to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
3. I bet against Maryland getting to the elite 8, which obviously means they will make it.
4. At one point down the final stretch, Maryland held CSU to 2 points in 6 minutes. Relentless defense in a tournament where many teams are struggling to score consistently (see Florida v. UConn)
5. Maryland went 6-13 from beyond the arc in the second half. They will need that against Florida.
Original Reasons - 3/18/2025
1. I’ve actually heard of Maryland, out of the gate something I cannot say about everyone else.
2. They have a cool mascot. That terrapin is objectively a good mascot, the mascot gods are fickle and going into the tournament, having them on your side is a bonus. This is why Providence is not in the tournament.
3. The ghost of Len Bias.
4. Maryland has been kind of a wagon lately, winning 11 in a row and the only losses were by the thinnest of margins.
Mike Rusconi
Michigan - Men
New Reasons
The first two rounds have shown that the Wolverines are battle tested. They staved off the upset that everyone picked and then beat a team from supposedly the greatest conference of all-time (it did not look like that AT ALL when Texas A&M faced them).
Vlad Goldin made this team look formidable on the inside in the first two rounds, finishing top five individually in rebounds per game (10) and blocks per game (1.5). Good luck to any team trying to execute anything inside against this squad.
Michigan has also proven in the opening weekend that they can adapt and win any type of game. A defensive slugfest where neither team goes over 70? Sure. An offensive barn burner that combines for 170? They have that handled as well. Whatever gameplan you throw at them, they will adjust.
They clearly thrive off of being doubted. Everyone and their mother (maybe even the moms of the Michigan players) seemed to be picking UC San Diego to upset the Wolverines in the opening round. Instead, they made it to the second weekend, where yet again the haters are coming out. Every list ranking the sweet 16 teams I have seen place Michigan outside the top 10. They have shown the ability to tune out the narratives and doubters and very well could do it again.
Guard CJ Donaldson faces his former team in Auburn, and his anger for the revenge game might be so strong that it allows them to demolish not only Auburn but anyone else standing in their way. It is possible that anger was present in the opening round when he hit the game-winning shot to take down UC San Diego and my bracket (sorry Wolverines fans, even the supportive voice behind your team just had to pick the Tritons in one of his 4 brackets).
Original Reasons
The man at the helm, Dusty May, knows what it takes to make a run in the NCAA tournament. Two years ago, he took 10 seed Florida Atlantic to the final four and has more on-paper talent now.
This squad has arguably the best inside presence of the entire field. Center Vlad Goldin is a scoring machine (almost 17 PPG) and Forward Danny Wolf is a do-it-all unicorn. Two seven-footers leading the team gives them a distinct advantage.
While they all transferred in last year, Michigan’s top three contributors (Goldin, Wolf, and guard Tre Donaldson) all played in the 2024 tournament and are upperclassmen. Experience is important this time of year, and the Wolverines have it.
As we all know, March Madness has its fair share of tightly-knit contests. Dusty May's bunch knows how to win these kinds of showdowns, with an 11-4 record in tilts decided by less than 4 points, including a 6-game win streak in games of that category.
Connor Stalions may be banned from Michigan football, but nobody ever said anything about basketball. They could hire him ahead of the tournament to get some extra insight on the other team if you catch my drift.
Mason DeLisser
Michigan State - Men
5. They were the clear top dawg in a top-heavy, top-tier B1G, ending the regular season with a full 3-game lead
4. They may have lost their conference semifinal v. Wisconsin, but they didn’t flame out, either
3. They’re due, not having won an NCAA title since (checks notes…) 2000!
2. They’re coming in hot, winners of their previous 8 games prior to the Wisconsin loss
1. They have Tom Izzo, and you don’t
GO SPARTANS!
Michael Dinga
Mississippi - Men
More Reasons
I have now watched two more Ole Miss games, totaling up to four on the season, and lemme tell you, this team is fun to watch. Their most recent showing against Iowa State was impressive (low turnover numbers, high volume passing, scrappy defense) gave me confidence that they could make a run to the championship.
Sorry if I’m late to the party, Rebel fans, but if you told me that you had a forward off the bench named Jaemyn that would be “Jaemyn” basketballs through the hoop, I would’ve filled all my brackets differently. Oh, he’s also 4-for-7 from three?
Speaking of threes, Ole Miss has been shooting far better from deep than I had expected: 40% in the first round and 57.9% in the second. Those numbers say “Never too far behind for a comeback.”
The Rebels have to get past two goliaths in college basketball (Michigan State and Auburn) to punch a ticket to San Antonio. I can’t tell what will be harder, potentially playing those two teams within days of each other or spending a week in San Antonio.
Original Reasons
I’m not going to lie, I have watched about two Ole Miss games. Both times they lost to Auburn. If they avoid facing Auburn in the tournament, look out.
There are several stats I like to watch out for when predicting how far a mid-seeded team can go, one of them being assist-to-turnover ratio. That ratio sits at 1.60 for the Rebels, good for 12th best in the nation. Well damn, Auburn is fourth.
The old “SEC has the toughest competition” cliche is slowly making it’s way into the basketball world. With it come two schools of thought: a team is a victim and should be readily rewarded for giving it their all against objectively better teams (in other words, “experience”), or a team is a contributor. The Rebels find themselves at a near-perfect medium with a Quad 1 record of 8-10 and an in-conference record of 10-8. If I had to choose, however, I believe Ole Miss is a contributor. Whichever line of thinking you fall into, Auburn is in the other with a fast pass.
Chris Beard has a beard. Where are your pearls, Bruce?
Theo Franz
Notre Dame - Women
New Reasons
Quick preamble: my editor for this site sent a request (actually many, many requests) after Selection Sunday asking me for five reasons why Notre Dame will win it all. Cool - did that and published a week ago right before round one tipoff. Well, one week later and ND is onto the Sweet Sixteen. This morning I got a new email asking for five reasons why Notre Dame will win it all. Ummm … is he ok? Busy week at CBT World Headquarters I am sure. And maybe he just needs content - so instead of a snarky “see above” here is what we will do: below are five reasons the Irish will get to the Final Four. Because if I understand how this all works, one needs to get to the Final Four to win the Natty. And I suspect should Notre Dame still be in this thing next week, I will get my third request for five reasons why Notre Dame will win it all. At which point I will call for a wellness check on said editor. Here you go:
1. The got momentum back. The team returned to its mid-season dominant form by crushing its first and second round opponents, Stephen F. Austin and Michigan, by a combined 73 points.
2. They got their revenge game (and will win it). The Irish now play TCU (and transfer portal frequent flyer Hailey Van Lith) who handed them them their first loss this season back in November in The Cayman Islands. They will flip that script.
3. They avoided a dreaded reverse double revenge game. TCU advanced by beating Louisville who Notre Dame had already beaten twice this year. Tough to beat a good opponent three times in one year.
4. Texas will get their revenge game (but will lose it). The Irish will likely face No. 1 seed Texas in the Elite Eight who they have already beaten this year. But after settling a score against TCU, ND will be ready for the Longhorns who will be looking to settle one of their own.
5. They are due. This program has a rich recent history including eight (!) Final Four appearances this century. However, they haven’t been there since 2019 and Niele Ivey has not been there as head coach. Now in her fifth year, it is time for her to get them back where they belong.
See you next week.
Original Reasons
The Notre Dame women last won the whole thing in 2018. Here are the five reasons why they are going to do it again this year.
1. They are tested: earlier this season, they took down three teams ranked in the top five in a two week stretch including Texas, USC, and UConn.
2. They are rested: hear me out - they lost three of their last five games and didn’t even make the ACC tournament final. This is classic rope-a-dope.
3. They will be doing the Texas Two (er, Three) Step: despite the slide, Notre Dame earned a three seed and the first two rounds are in South Bend. They will likely have to (really, get to) beat three Texas-based teams on their way to the final four; Stephen F. Austin (the programs have never met), TCU (revenge game for earlier loss in the Cayman Islands Classic), and No. 1 seed Texas (who they’ve already defeated once - see #1 above).
4. The Irish backcourt can ball: Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles are one of the best backcourt tandems in the country. They combined to average over 40 points per game and were both recently named semi-finalists for the Naismith Women’s Player of the Year.
5. Luck o’ the (Fighting) Irish: The tournament is kicking off in the same week as St. Patrick’s Day. So what if that sentence is true virtually every year? That good omen is coming through this year!
Let’s dance.
Rick Condon
Purdue - Men
New Reasons
People had a hard time forgetting how hard it was for this team to get past the first two rounds. Nearly a third of NCAA.com brackets chalked the Boilermakers up for another quick end to a successful season against a blue blood team in High Point University. Too bad I got a memory of a lobotomized goldfish. They’re in the Sweet 16 and will continue to prove bracketologists wrong.
Remember last time I said head coach Matt Painter’s tournament experience would prove to be valuable on a potential championship run if he were to make it to the Sweet 16? Well, I did say that. And I’m here to say it again, this time removing the hypotheticals and giving my stance some credibility.
The Boilermakers are the lowest seed (4) in the strongest remaining section of the bracket (Midwest). Their upcoming game against No. 1 seeded Houston on Friday will be their toughest opponent since they played Auburn late December and a good chance it’ll be their toughest opponent for the rest of the tournament.
I imagine beating a team with as much aura as McNeese State would only add onto your existing aura, as if you’re an evergrowing snake devouring the glowing dots of a slain enemy on Snake.io (I’m not getting paid to be your Gen Z translator–or to write this–so if you’re confused by any of it, I suggest you put that search bar to good use).
Original Reasons
Braden Smith is a pretty good basketball player. It really should be as simple as that, but I got stats to back it up. During Big Ten competition, the six-foot guard averaged 17.4 points, 8.9 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. He is the second player in the Big Ten to ever total 450 points, 250 assists, 125 rebounds and 60 steals in a season. The other was Magic Johnson. However, this is Smith’s second time doing so. To top it off, Smith was also named semifinalist for the Naismith Player of the Year on Friday.
Two-time NBA All-Star Glenn Robinson’s former college teammate, Matt Painter, got over the hump last year and finally coached his “perennial contending” team into contention. That experience could prove valuable if they return to the Sweet 16.
If numbers, names and previous experience doesn’t move the needle, hopefully the media’s opinion can change your mind. The Boilermakers closed out the regular season ranked No. 20 in the Associated Press poll.
Theo Franz
South Carolina - Women
More Reasons
5. The University of South Carolina is the largest university by enrollment in the state. This means that if the team starts to lose, they’ve also got the largest ARMY in the state. Rushing the court and changing the score would be all too easy.
4. They’ve already started ordering “2025 Tournament Champions” merch for the whole team so honestly it would be uncool for the other teams to make that a waste of money.
3. If you look at the schedule for the next game, it currently says the Gamecocks are up against “TBD”. I’ve never heard of this team in my life, can’t even begin to understand what state their acronym is supposed to be. When I click on their team, there’s literally no stats. Oh ok so South Carolina is going up against a team who hasn’t played ANY games? Yeah, I’ve got a guess as to who’ll come out on top.
2. They’ve got Sania Feagin, a BEAST on the court. She was part of the first group of Gamecocks to win not just one, but TWO National Championships. She regularly scores in the double digits and the NCAA runs regular tests to make sure she’s fully human (they suspect she’s part G.O.A.T.).
1. I bought a cameo from Kevin “Mr. Wonderful” O’leary saying that South Carolina would win the tournament. That’s the guy from Shark Tank. I figure if he knows how to make the right business decisions, he also knows how to make the right basketball decisions. I hope this scheme works, he charges $1500 for cameos, that’s real. Look it up.
Original Reasons
5. The element of confusion. Their mascot is the Gamecock. The other team won’t even notice South Carolina scoring like crazy because they’ll still be wondering “what the hell is a Gamecock?”
4. They’re the number 2 ranked team and have gone 30-3 overall. That’s wild, I can hardly even COUNT that number of wins. In fact, typically I can only count to 4, so I had to put a lot of effort into this list.
3. Their Gatorade cooler has “cool blue” Gatorade. Everyone knows that’s the best Gatorade. It’s not trying to be a fancy blend of fruit flavors like “cucumber lime” or “glacier cherry”. It literally just tastes like the color blue. Delicious.
2. They’ve already won NCAA championships in 2017, 2022, and 2024. And as far as I understand, they’re not stopping until they have enough trophies to start using them as bowling pins.
1. I mailed the entire team PEDs.
Trey Allwood
TCU - Women
New Reasons
This squad can dominate teams, and the first two rounds showed that. Winning both of those games by a combined 37 points showed at any point, TCU can run away with the game.
Including the tournament wins and their conference championship win, this team has now won 12 straight and 14 of the last 15. They are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, and they showed no signs of slowing down so far.
This team is well balanced, with 4 of 5 starters reaching double digits in each of the first two games and having multiple players go for 23 (Madison Conner and Agnes Emma-Nnopu respectively) in their opening bouts. You can get a scoring explosion from anyone on this team at any moment, which makes them so hard to guard.
The shooting is scorching hot at the right time. When I see numbers like 63% from the field and 61.1% behind the arc in their 2nd round game, I see a team that has no reason not to win it all.
Things eventually have to go well for the Horned Frogs in the postseason, right? After three straight years of devastating losses for the men’s team and an absolute meltdown against Georgia in the national championship in football, you would think the universe would eventually stop punishing the university, right?
Original Reasons
To be blunt, this team is damned good. The 31-3 record and getting as high as 6th in the AP poll speaks for itself.
The Horned Frogs have one of, if not the best, dynamic duos in the country. Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince have a plethora of experience and are both averaging over 17 points a game. The intimidating one-two punch is capable of taking down any and everyone.
This squad is very careful and precise with the basketball. Possessing the fourth-best assist/turnover ratio in the country, the passing game alone will help TCU win a lot of games in the tournament.
Experience is vital in March Madness, and the Frogs have it. Van Lith, Prince, and third-leading scorer Madison Conner are all fifth-year seniors averaging 15 (rounded up) or more.
The team is full of star power with Sedona Prince and Hailey Van Lith. It is very possible every squad they face might be too starstruck to focus. I would say this group has it in the bag if they decided to do the tournament based on Instagram followers, but Paige Bueckers and UConn would have something to say about that.
Mason deLisser
Tennessee - Men
New Reasons
1. There’s been some scuttlebutt that Vols' coach Rick Barnes may be retiring, and that the team wants to send him out on top. Hollywood script being written as we speak!
2. Kentucky would have to tighten up its defense to keep things close against the Vols, because points will be hard to come by against Tennessee's D.
3. The Volunteers outperformed 2nd round opponent UCLA in every aspect. That execution shows the Vols can do it all.
Original Reasons
1. I have declared them the honorary team of College Basketball Times' writers - The Volunteers
2. Head Coach Rick Barnes has the Vols in their sixth consecutive tournament, and they reached the Elite Eight in 2024.
3. Did you know All-American shooting guard Chaz Lanier is the son of Bob Lanier's nephew?
4. Defense wins championships. The Vols bring the D - featuring two Naismith Defensive Player of the Year finalists - Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack
Matt Carty
Texas Tech - Men
New Reasons
JT Toppin is an absolute monster and is as relentless as kudzu. He completely demolished Drake in the paint with 25 points on 11-13 shooting with 13 rebounds.
Versatility to match up against anyone. Against UNC Wilmington they won by making 13 three pointers; against Drake they scored 50 of their 77 points in the paint.
I think it was William Faulkner who originally wrote “defense wins championships” in the midst of a rambling seven page long, unpunctuated sentence in the first chapter of his classic novel “The Sound and the Fury”. He certainly might have been thinking about Texas Tech’s bend but don’t break defensive strategy that forces the other team to work for every bucket or he might have been talking about the wheat harvest in Missouri in the late 40s…no one really knows.
Darrion Williams is a human wrecking ball, with the grace of a ballerina. He’s built out of tungsten and looks like an NFL tight-end but he also can light you up from outside and is an 84 percent free throw shooter.
They take care of the basketball. Not like they sing to it, rub its forehead lovingly or get it warm milk when it can’t sleep or anything creepy like that, but they had the 6th best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country during the regular season and have continued to play mostly mistake free basketball in the tournament.
Original Reasons
They’ve got that one special player who can put the whole thing on his back. JT Toppin has grown by leaps and bounds in the past year. The New Mexico transfer could be this tournament’s Danny Manning, as anyone who watched his 41 point, 15 rebound double OT performance against Arizona State earlier in the year can attest. He has some off-nights, but when he’s in rhythm, it’s hard to stop him.
Grant McCasland is extremely effective at controlling the tempo of the game. During his impressive tenure at North Texas and in his first two years at Texas Tech, McCasland's teams have shown the ability to play uptempo when necessary, but are able to slow things down to the basketball equivalent of a doom metal riff when it comes down to crunch time. They can play the sort of deliberate, “every possession is a matter of life or death” sort of basketball that has historically translated well in March.
I believe it was General William Tecumseh Sherman who first uttered the words “Defense wins championships”. It was a strange thing to say for a guy who was in the process of setting the entire state of Georgia on fire to say, but he had a point. And as always, Texas Tech plays a repressive, nasty style of defense that inflicts suffering and turnovers on all foes.
They can score. Texas Tech teams in past years have looked almost annoyed by the fact that they couldn’t just play defense for the entire game. KenPom ranks this year's squad in the top 10 in terms of offensive efficency.
Federiko Federiko is one of the best names in all of college basketball. Humans with the same first name as last name are rare, but if memory serves, Duany Duany from Syracuse was the first and only tautonymically named player ever to play for a National Championship. Folks with this sort of name are 1-0 in title games.
Keith Spillett
UConn - Women
Original Reasons
1. Uconn won their first game by 69 points.
2. reason #1
4. Azzi Fudd had 21 pts in the first half alone in Rd 1
5. Paige Bueckers barely had to enter the chat in their first win
Original Reasons
1. Few programs have the pedigree of UConn, and they have a real husky as a mascot, not a fake one like Washington.
2. Paige Bueckers is healthy now.
3. I met a famous UConn bball player in a bar maybe 20 years ago she was meeting up with one of my friends that knew her from UConn. Another friend tried to hit on her, she said “You couldn’t even wash my panties, boy. “ It is to this day the funniest thing I have ever seen in person.
4. UConn probably has a chip on their shoulder now that SC is getting all the love.
5. UConn has missed exactly 1 final four in 16 years.
Mike Rusconi
UCLA - Women
They are off to a great start. They blew the Joggin’ Jaguars of Southern University away by 40 in the opener. Richmond hung around for a while largely on the strength of scoring machine Maggie Doogan standing on her head and making impossible shots, but eventually, the Bruins ran away with it. They expected to win the first two games convincingly. Mission accomplished.
As great as you think Lauren Betts is, she’s better. They only needed her out there for 26 minutes in the opener and she popped for 14 points on 6 for 9 shooting, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and a steal. Richmond was a higher level team and she correspondingly took her game to a higher level. From a statistical vantage point, it’s hard not to argue this was one of the most impressive performances in the history of the tournament. In 32 minutes, she scored 30 points on (14-17 shooting), 14 rebounds (9 of them offensive), 4 assists, 2 blocks and a steal. I did something like that once, but unfortunately, the plug came out of my Xbox and it didn’t save, so I can’t prove it. As great as those numbers sound, watching her completely control the game on both ends of the floor was truly a thing to behold.
In her poignant novel “My Antonia”, Willa Cather once wrote “defense wins championships”. Richmond was tied with UCLA at 36 at the half. Then, UCLA simply decided that they weren’t going to allow the opponent to score anymore. Richmond’s high powered offense was held to 7 points in the quarter. Richmond scored 5 points in the first two minutes in the 3rd before UCLA stomped on the Spiders, holding them to one basket in the final 8 minutes of the quarter. It was about as stifling a stretch of defense as you will ever see in the NCAA Tournament and the sort of thing that only a championship caliber team is capable of.
They are scoring efficiently from three point range. Consistently making three pointers is going to be a crucial part of UCLA’s game plan as they get deeper into the tournament. If they don’t make threes, defenses will collapse in on the paint and make it harder to get the ball to Betts and their armada of bigs. They were 11 for 29 (40.7 %) from three in the Richmond game which stretched the defense and allowed the Bruins to get everything they wanted down low.
They didn’t panic. A key sequence in the game came early in the second quarter when Doogan made a layup to give Richmond a 4-point lead. Maybe they were going to hang around and upset the heavily favored Bruins. UCLA immediately brought the ball down the floor and ran a beautifully designed play where Betts got the ball in the paint, drew the defense and kicked it out to Kiki Rice for a corner three. Richmond found a way to tie it at the half, but UCLA calmly responded with a 29-7 run. The message was clear. You aren’t Cinderella, and even if you were, it’s long past midnight.
There is a ton of firepower around Rice and Betts. In the Southern game, six players scored in double figures. Against Richmond, Timea Gardiner nailed 3 clutch three-pointers and Londyn Jones hit two more. It’s hard enough to contain two of the best offensive players in the nation in Rice and Betts, but if UCLA is getting clutch baskets from other players, I don’t know how another team can stop them.
Original Reasons
They are the best team in the country. It’s a little known fact, but the team ranked #1 at the end of the season often achieves that ranking by being better than everyone else. Since they spent 13 weeks at the #1 spot, it’s pretty safe to say that they are really great at this whole basketball thing.
They beat everybody. Their only losses this year were to USC and they avenged those by overwhelming the Trojans in the Big Ten Final. South Carolina is the #2 team in the country and they ran them out of Pauley Pavilion by 15 back in November.
I think it was William Makepeace Thackery who once said “Defense wins championships.” Lauren Betts is Greg Oden with nicer hair. They are overwhelmingly physical, stunningly quick and only gave up more than 70 or more points 4 times this year. Ohio State was averaging about 79 points per game. UCLA held them to 46 last week.
Coincidentally, offense also wins championships. First and foremost, they grind out bucket after bucket in the paint, with Betts dropstepping and steamrolling defenders to the tune of 19.2 points per game. But Kiki Rice is the driving force on offense, constantly finding unique ways of getting to the basket and distributing to a seemingly endless array of scorers. UCLA also averaged about 79 points per game. Nobody is holding them to 46. Ever.
Coach Cori Close has created a culture of toughness and tenacity that rivals any program in the country. Remember when the knock on West Coast basketball was that teams out there were soft? UCLA rolled into the rough and tumble Big Ten and yanked out more teeth than Jack Lambert’s dentist. Soft? This team is harder than me trying to park a Cybertruck.
Keith Spillett
USC - Women
New Reasons
1. My biggest argument for USC was that JuJu Watkins would be the force of nature that carried them to the title. JuJu is now sidelined for the rest of the tournament, having torn her ACL in the first four minutes of their second-round matchup with Mississippi State. The team played well in Watkins’ absence, still handling the Bulldogs easily in the Lady Trojans’ 96-59 win.
2. Throttling teams like Mississippi State and N.C. Greensboro is not a valid comp for the date with destiny that awaits in the Elite Eight should USC succeed against Kansas State. Kansas State will provide a test of USC’s sheer will to win, helping create the momentum needed to propel USC further.
3. Let’s face it. There are no Basketball Gods. Keeping us from seeing JuJu Watkins at this level is cruel to basketball fans. We may not get the special performance we expected to see, but I remain confident that USC can show a team effort against adversity that may be even more special.
Original Reasons
1. They've got Juju: If there's a name you need to know in Women's College Basketball right now, it is Juju Watkins. She's the Big Ten Player of the Year, and is the first women's college basketball player to sign a merch and collectibles deal with Fanatics. Yeah - she's good.
2. They have a score to settle with UCLA. After winning the Big Ten regular season title, the Women of Troy were overtaken by their rivals for the tournament win.
3. No shortage of NIL portal cash with all the Lakers and Dodgers in town
4. USC is a legit contender- but don't say they are "on fire." It is WAY too soon for that.
Matt Carty
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