NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview - Reasons Your Team Will Win

We are down to the Final 4.

Uh Dave, then why are there 8 logos on the above image?

Ahh, because there are 4 men's team and 4 women's teams. Yes, College Basketball Times tries, and occasionally succeeds, at covering women and men equally. And here you have one of those times when we succeed. So now please enjoy reasons why each team will win it all.

Uh Dave, they can't all win it all, right.

Well, that is correct.

So then you once again did not succeed, right?

We'll keep trying.

Sincerely,

Dave Barend - Grand Poobah

College Basketball Times

Auburn - Men

Latest Reasons

• Easiest prediction in the Final Four: Johni Broome will suffer a fairly serious-looking injury, limp off the court ... and then come back and go for 10 -and-10 with less than 5 minutes to play. Broome is a national POY contender, but is the clear champ in Willis Reeding.

• With the portal open and rolling and Bruce Pearl's recruiting skills, RJ Luis and Donovan Dent could yet suit up for the Tigers and be named Final Four Most Outstanding Player.

• Bruce Pearl famously -- and lovingly --calls his freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford "a little shit." If he is not already, he is about to be a "little shit millionaire," either through an NBA deal or whatever NIL money the Tigers round up to keep him in town. Kid is a game changer.

• Auburn is almost always the best defensive team on the court, ranked eighth nationally in KenPom's efficiency metric ... but is the third best in the Final Four, rated better than only Saturday foe Florida.

• In a just world, Dylan Cardwell is on the All-SEC team somewhere or, at the bare minimum, an all-defensive team member. But he received none of those accolades, which is a shame. He might be the best, least decorated player in the game -- and has been every bit Broome's equal down the stretch in all ways other than scoring. Championship teams always have great players who do not need the ball to be great. He's that guy for Bruce Pearl ... and a five-year Tiger, too.

New Reasons

• Bruce Pearl has won every place he has gone and has yet another chance to shed the title of "Best Coach without a National Title," that he shares with Mark Few, Kelvin Sampson and Rick Barnes.

• Some coaches leave their jobs for higher-profile roles with other programs when the season ends, but Pearl pressers seem like he's auditioning for U.S. State Department role crafting future policy as it pertains to Gaza.

• Statistically, Tigers are the best at nothing, but incredibly good at just about everything -- third in adjusted offense nationally, 12in in defense.

• Losers of three of four entering the tourney, got back on track with wins over Alabama State and Creighton, has momentum back in right direction.

• Every Auburn player is 114 or better in offensive efficiency. Pearl has crafted a machine and is ready to win big.

Original Reasons

1With Cooper Flagg gimpy, Johni Broome is the best (presumably) healthy player in the nation and is having his best season as a college player in his fifth year, averaging a double-double and is also shot blocking machine. Not the best player in Auburn history -- see Barkley, Charles -- but sure as hell looks like it a lot of nights.

2.Still pissed about losing to Virginia in the 2019 Final Four on a controversial call, plays with a chip on their shoulder and grinder mentality.

3Team was incentivized to earn overall No. 1 seed and play very close to home. Short flights are good for team that forced an airplane grounded after getting in an in-flight fight on its way to beat Houston early in the season.

4.Still pissed about losing in first round last year against Yale -- of all freaking teams -- in a game where Chad Baker-Mazara was ejected on a controversial call. Also got ejected in the home loss to Alabama this year. The Dominican is a difference maker and the lessons are learned ... he'll be dialed in.

 5Broome or Baker-Mazara could be the best defensive player on most teams, but Denver Jones has that honor for the Tigers. When Davion Mitchell was at Baylor, his nickname was "Off-Night," because every player he defended had one. That's Jones, a semifinalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year.

6.Everybody should root for the Tigers as, if Bruce Pearl is on the sideline, he can’t be on Twitter.

7.Bruce Pearl among the finalists to portray Frank Costanza in any potential “Seinfeld” reboot

Shawn O'Neal

Duke - Men

Latest Reasons

1. Best combination of offense and defense.

2. Because Duke dominated the ACC – the most competitive conference in all of high school basketball. 

3. Tyrese Proctor.

4. Someone has to stop the SEC from taking over college athletics.  

New Reasons

1. COOPER FLAGG

2. Duke's defense and depth

3. The media (including CBS) - which favors elite liberal universities like Duke - has already determined that Duke will win the tournament.

4. Duke gets all the calls.

5. Just like the Dallas Cowboys, Duke is America's team.  Unlike the Cowboys, Duke is actually good and can win in the post-season. 

Original Reasons

1. Cooper Flagg not really injured.  Just part of a deep state conspiracy.  FAKE NEWS!!!

2. Kon Knueppel and the rest of the Duke team. 

3. The Slim Reaper, Isaiah Evans, channels his inner Steph Curry and averages 8 made 3 pointers per game. 

4. DOGE announces that the federal government is immediately cutting all funding to the NCAA as well as any state that hosts an NCAA tournament game, creating mass confusion and delaying the tournament for a month until the administration abruptly changes course and seizes upon an opportunity to MAKE THE TOURNAMANENT GREAT AGAIN – MTTGA – to divert attention from the stock market’s continued precipitous decline.  Flagg’s ankle full healed by time tourney starts and averages a double-double.

5. Duke engineering students unveil a time machine and, much like Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, bring back a 22 year old Christian Laettner from 1992, who is granted another year of eligibility by the NCAA.  Duke beats both Kentucky and UConn en route to another Championship.

6. Cooper Flagg, on a bum ankle, still manages to be Cooper Flagg and wills Duke to a national championship.

Robb Hellwig

Florida - Men

Latest Reasons

1. Walter Clayton. That's the reason—most clutch player in the tournament and the second coming of Steph Curry. 

   
   

2. Todd Golden and the Guys have presented chemistry better than my teacher ever did in high school.  

   
   

3. Lasting through the SEC tournament and the four games in the national championship, the Gators have been through every possible scenario imaginable this season. The historic SEC season has the Gators battle-tested and ready for war.

   
   

4. The late-game execution has been elite for the Gators. The narrow wins against UConn and Texas Tech have proven even if Florida is down, they won't stay down for long. 

   
   

5. The balance and depth of the roster have continued to be prevalent in the tournament. The previous game had incredible performances from Thomas Haugh and Walter Clayton, along with the supporting, hard-working cast of Will Richard, Alijah Martin, and Reuben Chinyelu. Too many big names are on the roster; you can't shut them all down at once.

New Reasons

1. Walter Clayton is the best college player when he's on. He can make a three from anywhere. Drive to the paint. Create contact—Swish free throws. And most importantly, he's got that dawg in him.

   
   

2. Florida's size in the front court has continued to prove its dominance in the paint, and it can rebound against other prominent big men. 

   
   

3. Despite the close win to UConn, two-seed St. John's has been eliminated from the West bracket, the opponent most likely to take Florida out. The next matchup is Maryland, which has no bench compared to the Gator's deep roster. And when the Gators win that one, they'll play either Arkansas, who they already beat, or Texas Tech, who are prone to foul trouble in the paint, which Thomas Hauk and Alex Condon will take advantage of happily.

   
   

4. This year's the last chance the elite guards get to win a championship. The continued senior/grad trio of Walter Clatyon Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin will continue to guide the way as they have all year with their experience. Alijah Martin's further experience in his Final Four runs with FAU will also show up big. 

   
   

5. There's a different type of energy with this team. From the grittiness to the depth, Coach Todd Golden got hyped with his whole team present during the post-game interview. This team is confident and ready to take the chip home here and now.

Original Reasons

1. Rebounds come easy for the Gators. The tall trio of Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Reuben Chinyelu rack in at least 6 rebounds per game. They rank third in the country with 42.1 rebounds per game. The entire roster crashes the boards like no one's business.

   
   

2. The SEC had the historically best season, entering 14 teams into March Madness. The Gators won the conference tournament and beat every team they played by at least 9 points. You can't tell me that's not national champion material.

   
   

3. The Florida Gators can do what the Phoenix Suns wish they could. Have a dominant trio of players be able to carry them to a championship. But wait, Florida's role players are actually good. 

   
   

4. Florida has the country's top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency; it is a well-rounded team that is not just carried by a fast-paced offense like last year. The backcourt will steal the ball and make quick threes, and the frontcourt will steal offensive rebounds and block you in the paint.

   
   

5. The Gator's margin of victory this year was 16.2, while at home, it was 23.5. The Gators are also defeating the best teams in the country by a significant amount. They beat Auburn on the road by 9. Alabama by 22. Tennessee by 30. You get the idea.

Tyler Brodie

Houston - Men

Latest Reasons

• Houston's Kelvin Sampson took his first team to the NCAA Tournament in 1993, and while his Washington State Cougars lost a first-round game to Boston College on an ill-advised late game shot, his Saturday coaching opponent -- Jon Scheyer -- was in kindergarten.

• All-American guard LJ Cryer will attempt to open and close his college career with a national title. That said, he will likely see the floor more this weekend after logging a total three minutes in the 2021 "bubbled" event.

• Have you watched this team play? They're not super tall and there are older teams, but the team leads with toughness: Big, strong, mean, grown-ass men. Duke better hit from 3. Nobody is doing well against these guys from 2.

• Have not lost by more than five points all year and have not lost -- period -- since February 1. Coming into San Antonio with 17 straight wins, 12 of those against NCAA teams. 

• If you want to know why Houston is the new Kansas in the Big 12 -- it's true, it's true -- look at Jojo Tugler, a third-team all-conference selection and Defensive Player of the Year. His other scholarship offers were from Kansas State, SMU, TCU and Tulsa. Good schools, all ... but there's no Kansas, there's no Texas, there's no Oklahoma. And he's a sophomore who will -- NIL willing -- serve as Sampson's cornerstone going forward.

New Reasons

• The Cougars' rise in the American helped earn their jump to the Big 12, where there was no thought they could continue on the same path, but have punked the Big 12 in consecutive years by a combined six games.

• Houston enters the Sweet 16 having won a national best 15 consecutive games, its last loss coming on February 1, a single-point OT setback to another Sweet 16 teams, Texas Tech.

• Three of Houston's four losses this year are in OT, the only regulation setback coming to Auburn in the infamous "Fight or Flight" game, where the Tigers chose both and pulled out a 74-69 win.

• Houston's resume reads like five teams' strengths condensed into one: Best in the nation in defensive efficiency and 3-point shooting, best in the Big 12in blocked shots on defense and offense, offensive rebound percentage and steal percentage on offense. Good luck.

• One of Kelvin Sampson's first coaching jobs was Washington State, where he had a role player by the name of LaVar Ball, who had a couple of sons who became NBA players. Sampson's assessment of Ball's abilities according to the Lewiston (Idaho) Tribune: “We could lock LaVar in a barn for two hours and I don’t think he’d score 20 points. His role is not to score points.”

Original Reasons

• Underrated part of coaching is getting college-aged men to show up and perform consistently night after night. Nobody does that better than Kelvin Sampson. Dude's been in the Big 12 two years, been Coach of the Year in both.

• Back as high seed after missing chance last year when Jamal Shead was lost to injury in tight Sweet 16 loss to Duke. Dominated the Big 12 again. Won by two games last year, four this year.  With all eyes on the SEC and Duke, feels like the Coogs are getting slept on.

• Second best defense in the nation according to KenPom and only four teams play a slower pace. A date with Houston is as enjoyable as getting your wisdom teeth removed. 

• Last year's Coogs were the second best defensive team in America behind Iowa State, per KenPom. This year's is No. 2 behind St. Johns ... but this year's team is potent from 3-point range, fourth nationally with three high-volume shooters (LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp) hitting at better than 40%.

• No coach is as hungry for a title as Sampson, with his 21st NCAA Tournament team. His first was in 1994 when another group of Cougars -- Washington State -- clinched a berth with a win in the regular-season finale over Cal. The Golden Bears point guard? Dallas Mavericks coach Jason Kidd.

Shawn O'Neal

South Carolina - Women

Latest Reasons

4. In the final four, the Gamecocks will face the Texas Longhorns, a team they beat not even a month ago. We can only hope the Longhorns are employing a coaching strategy where they don’t learn from any of their mistakes.

3. South Carolina just revealed their new streaming service, Gamecock. It’s the only place where you can watch really poorly recorded bootlegs of The Office in every language except for English. An announcement this big would only be made with the confidence that the team is about to win this whole tournament.

2. I’ve given a lot of money to an anonymous Longhorns player to throw the game. Around halftime, you’ll start to notice loose banana peels up and down the entire Texas bench. Then, the slipping will begin.

1. If they lose, I can’t write any more of these lists and I neeeed attention, oh my god I need attention so bad.

More Reasons

5. The University of South Carolina is the largest university by enrollment in the state. This means that if the team starts to lose, they’ve also got the largest ARMY in the state. Rushing the court and changing the score would be all too easy.

4. They’ve already started ordering “2025 Tournament Champions” merch for the whole team so honestly it would be uncool for the other teams to make that a waste of money.

3. If you look at the schedule for the next game, it currently says the Gamecocks are up against “TBD”. I’ve never heard of this team in my life, can’t even begin to understand what state their acronym is supposed to be. When I click on their team, there’s literally no stats. Oh ok so South Carolina is going up against a team who hasn’t played ANY games? Yeah, I’ve got a guess as to who’ll come out on top.

2. They’ve got Sania Feagin, a BEAST on the court. She was part of the first group of Gamecocks to win not just one, but TWO National Championships. She regularly scores in the double digits and the NCAA runs regular tests to make sure she’s fully human (they suspect she’s part G.O.A.T.).

1. I bought a cameo from Kevin “Mr. Wonderful” O’Leary saying that South Carolina would win the tournament. That’s the guy from Shark Tank. I figure if he knows how to make the right business decisions, he also knows how to make the right basketball decisions. I hope this scheme works, he charges $1500 for cameos, that’s real. Look it up.

Original Reasons

5. The element of confusion. Their mascot is the Gamecock. The other team won’t even notice South Carolina scoring like crazy because they’ll still be wondering “what the hell is a Gamecock?”

4. They’re the number 2 ranked team and have gone 30-3 overall. That’s wild, I can hardly even COUNT that number of wins. In fact, typically I can only count to 4, so I had to put a lot of effort into this list.

3. Their Gatorade cooler has “cool blue” Gatorade. Everyone knows that’s the best Gatorade. It’s not trying to be a fancy blend of fruit flavors like “cucumber lime” or “glacier cherry”. It literally just tastes like the color blue. Delicious.

2. They’ve already won NCAA championships in 2017, 2022, and 2024. And as far as I understand, they’re not stopping until they have enough trophies to start using them as bowling pins.

1. I mailed the entire team PEDs.

Trey Allwood

UConn - Women

1.  Paige Bueckers is pretty good...105 points in three games. 

2.  UConn has way cooler names than UCLA.  Although there is an argument that if you have a name like Sarah Strong, Ashlynn Shade, and Ice Brady, your parents may have inadvertently picked your career choice already (I was thinking WWE, get your mind out of the gutter).  I'm surprised Elton John doesn't have a name called "Sarah Strong," seems like something that would fit on Yellow Brick Road after All the Girls Love Alice. 

3.  Nobody pays attention to sports in Los Angeles.  There is objectively nothing to do in Connecticut so everyone pays attention. 

4.  This is the NCAAs, never count out the underdog...if you want to call a #2 seed an underdog. 

5.  I predicted that they would not make it this far, so clearly they are going to win it all.  

Original Reasons

1. Uconn won their first game by 69 points. 

2. reason #1

3. reason #1 and #2

4. Azzi Fudd had 21 pts in the first half alone in Rd 1

5. Paige Bueckers barely had to enter the chat in their first win

Original Reasons

1. Few programs have the pedigree of UConn, and they have a real husky as a mascot, not a fake one like Washington. 

2. Paige Bueckers is healthy now.

3. I met a famous UConn bball player in a bar maybe 20 years ago she was meeting up with one of my friends that knew her from UConn.  Another friend tried to hit on her, she said “You couldn’t even wash my panties, boy. “  It is to this day the funniest thing I have ever seen in person. 

4. UConn probably has a chip on their shoulder now that SC is getting all the love.

5.  UConn has missed exactly 1 final four in 16 years. 

Mike Rusconi

UCLA - Women

Latest Reasons

• Lauren Betts is stronger than bathtub gin and the best UCLA post scorer who never received a dime from Sam Gilbert.  She’s not just a great offensive player because of what she does when she has the ball, she’s incredible because she is so powerful that she overwhelms anyone guarding her and catches the ball about a foot away from the basket when they run anything to the post.

  
  

• If Bill Rafferty had called the game he might have said that Gabriela Jaquez has “onions”.  While this euphamism seems both an anatomically absurd and generally obscene way of describing what others simply refer to as “guts”, going 4 for 5 from three and 4 for 4 from the line and ending up with 18 points in an Elite Eight game certainly matches whatever metaphor for clutch play you might choose to use.

  
  

• During his landmark and much maligned dissent in Sierra Club vs. Morton in 1972, Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas asserted that both “trees do not have standing” and “defense wins championships”.  While some legal scholars have scoffed at Douglas’ valiant attempt to take up for the rights of living but non-human entities through the courts in the first quote, all they need to do is look at the nearly five minute stretch of the 2nd quarter when UCLA didn’t give up a basket against the high-powered LSU offense to see that the second statement is demonstrably true.

  
  

• Elvis has left the building.  Kim Mulkey, who seems to regularly pull her coaching attire from The King’s Las Vegas Residency and is only matched by John Calipari’s Arkansas Collection in terms of sheer gaudiness, showed last year that she had a brilliant game plan to score against UCLA’s shutdown defense, knocking them out of the Sweet 16.  Not this year.

  
  

• Cory Close continued to show why she is considered by many the best young coach in college basketball.  She made a series of brilliant calls during the game, my favorite being when LSU was in an aggressive foul or steal defense trailing by six with 28 seconds left… Angela Dugalic was the inbounder but she dropped Jacquez behind the inbound line and passed the ball using the out of bounds line to shield the ball from the defender then threw it back to Dugalic who was then in  inbounds in order to avoid a rip and send the 80.5 % free throw shooting Senior to the line for clutch free throws. (Yes…that is legal!)

New Reasons

• They are off to a great start.  They blew the Joggin’ Jaguars of Southern University away by 40 in the opener.  Richmond hung around for a while largely on the strength of scoring machine Maggie Doogan standing on her head and making impossible shots, but eventually, the Bruins ran away with it. They expected to win the first two games convincingly.  Mission accomplished.

  
  

• As great as you think Lauren Betts is, she’s better.  They only needed her out there for 26 minutes in the opener and she popped for 14 points on 6 for 9 shooting, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and a steal.  Richmond was a higher level team and she correspondingly took her game to a higher level.  From a statistical vantage point, it’s hard not to argue this was one of the most impressive performances in the history of the tournament.   In 32 minutes, she scored 30 points on (14-17 shooting), 14 rebounds (9 of them offensive), 4 assists, 2 blocks and a steal.  I did something like that once, but unfortunately, the plug came out of my Xbox and it didn’t save, so I can’t prove it. As great as those numbers sound, watching her completely control the game on both ends of the floor was truly a thing to behold.

  
  

• In her poignant novel “My Antonia”, Willa Cather once wrote “defense wins championships”.  Richmond was tied with UCLA at 36 at the half.  Then, UCLA simply decided that they weren’t going to allow the opponent to score anymore.  Richmond’s high powered offense was held to 7 points in the quarter. Richmond scored 5 points in the first two minutes in the 3rd before UCLA stomped on the Spiders, holding them to one basket in the final 8 minutes of the quarter.  It was about as stifling a stretch of defense as you will ever see in the NCAA Tournament and the sort of thing that only a championship caliber team is capable of.

  
  

• They are scoring efficiently from three point range.  Consistently making three pointers is going to be a crucial part of UCLA’s game plan as they get deeper into the tournament.  If they don’t make threes, defenses will collapse in on the paint and make it harder to get the ball to Betts and their armada of bigs.  They were 11 for 29 (40.7 %) from three in the Richmond game which stretched the defense and allowed the Bruins to get everything they wanted down low. 

• They didn’t panic.  A key sequence in the game came early in the second quarter when Doogan made a layup to give Richmond a 4-point lead.  Maybe they were going to hang around and upset the heavily favored Bruins.  UCLA immediately brought the ball down the floor and ran a beautifully designed play where Betts got the ball in the paint, drew the defense and kicked it out to Kiki Rice for a corner three.  Richmond found a way to tie it at the half, but UCLA calmly responded with a 29-7 run.  The message was clear.  You aren’t Cinderella, and even if you were, it’s long past midnight.

  
  

• There is a ton of firepower around Rice and Betts.  In the Southern game, six players scored in double figures.  Against Richmond, Timea Gardiner nailed 3 clutch three-pointers and Londyn Jones hit two more.  It’s hard enough to contain two of the best offensive players in the nation in Rice and Betts, but if UCLA is getting clutch baskets from other players, I don’t know how another team can stop them.

Original Reasons

• They are the best team in the country.  It’s a little known fact, but the team ranked #1 at the end of the season often achieves that ranking by being better than everyone else.  Since they spent 13 weeks at the #1 spot, it’s pretty safe to say that they are really great at this whole basketball thing.

  
  

• They beat everybody.  Their only losses this year were to USC and they avenged those by overwhelming the Trojans in the Big Ten Final. South Carolina is the #2 team in the country and they ran them out of Pauley Pavilion by 15 back in November. 

  
  

• I think it was William Makepeace Thackery who once said “Defense wins championships.”  Lauren Betts is Greg Oden with nicer hair.  They are overwhelmingly physical, stunningly quick and only gave up more than 70 or more points 4 times this year.  Ohio State was averaging about 79 points per game. UCLA held them to 46 last week.

  
  

• Coincidentally, offense also wins championships.  First and foremost, they grind out bucket after bucket in the paint, with Betts dropstepping and steamrolling defenders to the tune of 19.2 points per game. But Kiki Rice is the driving force on offense, constantly finding unique ways of getting to the basket and distributing to a seemingly endless array of scorers.  UCLA also averaged about 79 points per game. Nobody is holding them to 46.  Ever.

  
  

• Coach Cori Close has created a culture of toughness and tenacity that rivals any program in the country.  Remember when the knock on West Coast basketball was that teams out there were soft?  UCLA rolled into the rough and tumble Big Ten and yanked out more teeth than Jack Lambert’s dentist.  Soft?  This team is harder than me trying to park a Cybertruck. 

  
  

Keith Spillett

TEXAS - Women

• Before their conference championship loss to South Carolina on Sunday, Texas was Associated Press’ No. 1 team in the nation for two weeks in a row. And after some number crunching, I’ve found that rank to be a good indicator of a successful basketball team with a good chance to win the tournament.

  
  

• Two of the Longhorn’s three losses on the season were to SEC powerhouse South Carolina. The other was to Notre Dame in early December. That level of competition won’t be seen until at least the Elite Eight. A couple of upsets in Texas’ favor beforehand would mean a cake walk to the sunny beaches of Tampa Bay.

  
  

• They said the lights are too bright for you, Madison Booker. They said you shouldn’t have been SEC Player of the Year. They said Bree Hall owns you. They said others deserved to be Naismith Trophy semifinalists over you. Prove them wrong.

  
  

• I heard somewhere that if you pick Texas to win the tournament, you can add Vic Schaefer to your resume.

Theo Franz